The U.S. economy seems to have ended its pandemic-induced free fall. Tentative signs of the recession’s nadir are evident in near real-time data across the economy. It is now time to begin considering the shape of the post-pandemic economy: What it will look like, whose interests are given preference, and how fiscal and monetary policy will drive the American economy. Join RSM’s Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas on July 21 for a mid-year economic update to include:
- The economic impact of the pandemic
- Monetary and fiscal policy responses
- Job markets and unemployment
- Coronavirus impact on middle market business
- Economic recovery
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9.
We anticipate that the decline in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be the largest single decline in the modern economic era. Based solely on domestic consumption and manufacturing activity, our monthly index indicates that the U.S. economy hit bottom in April and stayed there in May.
With all indicators reported for April, the RSM index points to real GDP dropping by 9% relative to last year at the same time. Releases of industrial production and labor market data for May — combined with forecasted values for other indicators — suggest that 9% loss carrying over into May as shown in the figure below.
This is the foundation of our estimate of a decline of 38.5% in U.S. second-quarter GDP on a seasonally adjusted annualized pace.
Tue, Jul 21, 2020
11:00 AM - 12:00 PM