Dealing with disruption: PIMCO’s long-term economic outlook

Posted on 07/12/2019 by PIMCO

China. Populism. Demographics. Technology. Financial Market Vulnerability. These five trends have the potential to disrupt the global economy over the next three to five years. That was a key conclusion of PIMCO’s recent Secular Forum, which takes place every May at our headquarters in Newport Beach, California.

The Secular Forum, a hallmark of PIMCO’s investment process since 1982, aims to identify the key economic and political forces that will shape the global economy and financial markets over a long-term, or secular time horizon. With the help of world-renowned academic leaders, policymakers and other outside experts, hundreds of PIMCO investment professionals from our offices around the world contribute to three and a half days of rigorous debate.

“PIMCO’s Secular Forum is so critical for our clients,” said Brian Kyle, Internal Divisional Sales Manager in PIMCO’s Austin office. “Not only does our forum process guide how we allocate assets on investors’ behalf, it also puts us squarely on the same side of the table as clients because they know we are thinking about the markets and the economy the same way they invest – for the long term.”

During the Secular Forum, PIMCO defined a baseline outlook for the global economy, which is for lackluster growth on average and persistently low inflation in the advanced economies. Importantly, our baseline includes a relatively shallow global recession at some point during the secular horizon, with a sluggish recovery. We also recognized one factor that we think is important for our clients, our industry and our firm over an even longer-term horizon – climate change.

For more about this annual event, our view on market drivers and why “this atmosphere of disruption is one that we believe will provide good opportunities for active investment managers,” read our full outlook: Dealing With Disruption.

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers. Our Austin office is located at 401 Congress Avenue. For more about PIMCO, please visit and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2019, PIMCO

Related Categories: Membership