Job Growth & Unemployment

Posted on 03/10/2015 by Beverly Kerr

The Austin metropolitan area added 27,700 jobs, or 3.1%, in the 12 months ending in January, according to Friday’s releases of payroll jobs numbers by the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). Austin trails each of the other major Texas metros. Dallas grew by 4.6%, Fort Worth by 4.1%, Houston by 3.8% and San Antonio by 3.4% between January 2014 and January 2015. The data for all U.S. metros, from which we usually create a job growth ranking for this article, will not be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) until March 17. (*)

Private sector job growth in the Austin MSA was robust at 3.7%, adding 26,400 jobs, and with all private industry divisions contributing to the growth. Austin's large government sector (nearly 19% of jobs) saw modest growth over the last 12 months, gaining only 1,300 jobs or 0.8%, thus bringing the overall job growth rate to 3.1%.

Texas saw stronger net private sector job growth of 4.0% with all private industry divisions adding jobs over the last 12 months. As with Austin, total job growth statewide was lower, 3.5%, due to the only moderate growth (1.1%) in the government sector, which accounts for over 16% of total state employment. For the nation, private sector growth was 2.8% for the 12 months ending in February (national data is presently a month ahead of state and local data), with all private industries adding jobs. Overall job growth was a more modest 2.4% because the government sector gained only 0.4%.

Jobs in January are down from the preceding month by 11,900 or 1.3% in the not-seasonally-adjusted series for Austin, while December-to-January change on a seasonally adjusted basis shows a gain of 1,300 jobs or 0.1%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, jobs also rose in January in San Antonio (0.7%), Fort Worth (0.7%), and Dallas (0.6%). Jobs dropped by 0.1% in Houston. Seasonally adjusted jobs were up 0.2% in January for Texas. Nationally seasonally adjusted jobs rose 0.2% in January and again in February.

In Austin, the industry adding the most jobs was education and health services, which grew by 5,300 jobs or 5.2% over the last 12 months. Two other industries grew at faster rates. Construction and natural resources grew by 8.1% or 3,800 jobs and information grew by 5.8% or 1,400 jobs. Also growing at faster-than-average rates were other services (4.2% or 1,600 jobs) and wholesale trade (4.0% or 1,800 jobs).

Statewide, construction and natural resources grew fastest and added the most jobs over the last 12 months —7.8% and 70,800 jobs. Four other industries were also relatively fast growing: transportation, warehousing and utilities gained 4.2% and wholesale trade, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality each grew by 4.8%.

Nationally, professional and business services added the most jobs (666,000) and gained 3.6% over the 12 months ending in February. Construction and natural resources saw the largest percent change (5.3%). Transportation, warehousing and utilities and leisure and hospitality also grew at faster-than-average rates (4.2% and 3.6% respectively). No industry lost jobs.

The net gain for private service-providing industries in Austin is 22,400 jobs, or 3.6%, over the last 12 months and the net gain for goods producing industries is 4,000, or 3.8%. Statewide, private service-providing industries are up 291,700 or 3.8% and goods producing industries are up 85,500 or 4.8%.

We also now have January labor force, employment, and unemployment numbers for Texas and local areas in Texas. The same data for all U.S. metros that we often do a ranking of will not be released until March 20. In December, Austin had the second lowest rate of unemployment among the 50 largest metros.

Unemployment numbers for January show Austin’s performance relative to the state and other major Texas metros being sustained. In January, Austin is at 3.7%, while the other major metros range from 4.1% in San Antonio to 4.5% in Houston. Dallas and Fort Worth are at 4.4%. Austin’s rate one year ago was 4.6%. The rates in Texas’ other major metros are 1.0 to 1.2 percentage points improved on the rates seen a year ago. Within the Austin MSA, Travis County has the lowest unemployment rate in January, at 3.7%, while Caldwell County has the highest at 4.7%. The rate is 3.8% in Hays and Williamson Counties and 4.2% in Bastrop County. The statewide not-seasonally-adjusted rate is now 4.6%, compared to 5.7% in January of last year. The February national rate is 5.8% and January was 6.1%, compared to 7.0% in January and February of last year.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin’s January unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.6% in December. San Antonio has the next lowest seasonally adjusted rate at 4.0%, while Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston are at 4.3%. January rates are up from December in each metro by 0.1, except in Fort Worth, which is unchanged. The statewide rate is 4.4%, down from 4.6% in December. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 5.6% in December to 5.7% in January, but fell to 5.5% in February. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Texas metros are produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (The TWC also produces seasonally adjusted rates for Texas metros, but publication lags the Dallas Fed’s data.)

With Austin’s unemployment rate down from one year ago, the number unemployed has also declined. In January 2014, Austin’s number of unemployed was 47,652, and has decreased by 8,319 or 17.5%, to 39,333. Civilian labor force (employed plus unemployed) increased by 12,780 or 1.2% in the last 12 months, while persons employed increased by 21,099 or 2.1%. Texas is also showing larger growth in employed (2.5%) than in labor force (1.2%), and 138,769 fewer people (18.7%) are unemployed. Nationally, February civilian labor force is up by 0.8%, while employed is above the level of a year ago by 2.1%, and 1.8 million fewer people (16.5%) are unemployed.

Texas Workforce Commission will release February estimates on March 27.

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Footnote:

(*) March is the month in which the BLS and state labor market data offices complete an annual benchmark revision process, therefore all data is not available on the customary third-Friday-of-the-month schedule. You may recall that, with the release ofpreliminary December data, Austin fell out of its customary place in the top 10 ranking based on year-over-year percent change in nonfarm jobs. Austin's 2.9% percent change in the preliminary release made it the 16th best performing large metro. The revisions of December 2013 and December 2014 released on March 6, show that Austin's growth was 3.1% rather than 2.9% for that 12-month period.

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The Chamber’s Economic Indicators page provides up-to-date historical spreadsheet versions of Austin, Texas and U.S. data for both the Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) data addressed above.

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